An early post mortem of John McGrath’s mayoralty campaign

Initially, I thought John McGrath’s Wellington mayoralty campaign had a chance.  Prendergast’s a bit boring and a local restaurateur with a slick campaign looked like viable opposition.  This is no longer a credible view.

The billboard campaign’s slogans don’t put across a credible message.  Claiming mojo and the need for a change won’t resonate with many people.  It’s unclear why you should vote for him to be mayor.

Also the only real news he’s made during the campaign has been unhelpful at best.

The lesson is present a clear point of difference and make positive news for the campaign.

What they don’t tell you about Single Transferable Vote

While everyone explains how to vote for the person you want to win using Single Transferable Vote (STV), it’s rarely explained how to vote against people you want to lose.

 The key to ensuring the person you like least is most disadvantaged by your vote is to rank every other candidate above the person you like least.   By doing this, your vote will always work against your least preferred person.  

It’s one of the advantages of STV that it lets you pick who you don’t want as well as who you do.  It’s a pity people aren’t told.

Manukau City Council Elections 2007 – I may have been wrong

My picking of Dick Quax for Mayor of Manukau looks like a bad call.

A Herald-DigiPoll  shows Len Brown with a healthy 8% lead over Quax.   In particular, Brown’s looking good in Howick where the more right wing Quax needs to do best.  Jackson and Little are looking like also rans.  

With voting underway and a FPP poll it’s looking good for Brown despite other candidates claiming, somewhat disingenuously, the race has just begun.   

 What could affect the final result significantly is Manukau’s awful voting participation rate (around 40%).   Who has the most motivated support may be the decider.

Sunday Star Times: Beating blogs in the drivel game.

 Blogs are supposed to have the ill-informed rant market cornered.  The SST strikes back.

Today, editor Cate Brett progresses through sound bites on carbon pricing and poorer households, stagnant tax brackets to GST’s inflation link.  Then bizarrely proposes that rather than doing something ‘complex’, we should drop GST on necessities.  Australia shows this is a complex solution and cutting millionaires’ grocery bills targets ’struggling Kiwi households’ poorly.

Finlay MacDonald out does his editor with a piece I’ll summarise: carbon trading = financial markets = bad.

No wonder Hardnews and Kiwiblog linked to NRT and not the SST.

Is Ponoko the next big thing?

Ponoko is the way of the future for manufacturing.   Flexible computer aided manufacturing tools are going to transform making simpler things in the same way digital cameras and modern inkjets have transformed photography.  Rather than choosing from a store’s range, we’ll be able to buy customised things made just for us or we’ll make it ourselves.

Ponoko’s at the forefront of this.  Their prospects? 

Success will be mainly about marketing, service and moving first.  There’s little about their business model that can’t be replicated.  They’ll need to be a leader before every man and his laser cutter jumps on board.

New Zealand’s housing bubble bursting?

There’s another round of property market doom saying.   Statistics suggest the rises of recent years may have reached their limits.   The US market is also turning south.   One veteran investor  says he’s selling up, but he’s been saying that since 2004.

The BNZ predicts >5% price growth through to 2008 and points to many convincing factors supporting current prices.

So there are factors restricting both rises and falls.  Unless something occurs, that forces many people to sell or makes people less able to afford current prices, a crash seems unlikely. So the question is will there be a ’something’?

Nick Kelly for Mayor of Wellington

I’ve voted for Nick.  I hate student politics and my vote for him was revenge.

Nick appears to live in a black and white world of only workers and capitalists. 

In a recent Q&A in the Wellingtonian, Nick damns ”yuppie mansions” and suggests we need suburban councils for students, workers and beneficiaries, just like in the Soviet Union. 

He seems oblivious to a few things.  Most people aren’t oppressed workers.  Since Marx, a middle class has developed and those yuppie houses are their ¼ acre dream.  Also students aren’t revolutionary radicals mostly; they’re tomorrow’s McMansion owners. Capitalism’s stolen Nick’s constituency.

Manukau City Council Mayoral Candidates 2007

 My old municipality has an interesting election contest with no clear favorite.  Manukau city’s 2004 results had Brown and Quax very close behind Curtis for Mayor.  Jackson upsets their applecart. My quick run down:

Kelvyn Alp, owns Ian Wishart books;

Arthur Anae, apparently an ex-MP;

Baskaran Appu, Communist;

Len Brown, won’t beat Quax this time;

David Collings, incumbent councilor with no political baggage;

John Harvey, is standing;

Willie Jackson, Curtis’ antithesis;

Annie King, veteran protester;

Craig Little, too much competition to win

Paul Pavletich, motorsport isn’t enough

Dick Quax, Howick and Pakuranga will win the day.

Why the New Zealand National Front never took off

In a democracy like New Zealand it’s important that there is open political process so that we can have free and open debate.  Ideas get tested and, hopefully, the stupid, venal and unpleasant ideas are exposed for what they are.    Likewise the free media allows us to examine potential political leaders to see whether or not they meet the standards the public requires. 

The Internet’s also provided a better means for potential leaders to communicate with the public.  Christchurch mayoral candidate, and former National Front leader, Kyle Chapman is communicating to the people that HE’S TOO STUPID TO SPELL ‘POLITICAL‘!

Lambton Ward Candidates 2007

Getting a bit closer to home, I thought I might do a run down of the candidates for Wellington City Council’s Lambton Ward.   Unfortunately the interweb seems to be something that happens to other people for most incumbents and wannabes. 

Only one out of the eight bothered setting up a proper site – Ian McKinnon.  Second place goes to Callum Strong for setting up an election Myspace page and third goes to unlucky Iona Pannett.   Having only missed out by 100ish votes in 2004, you would expect that Iona would see a little extra effort as being worthwhile.