Minnow Party post election round up

While the Christian parties had 1996 to give them hope, most knew they had no chance.  While the Libertarianz and the Workers’ Party would be happy just to stand by their ideals, you have to wonder why the Alliance doesn’t just join Labour or the Greens or why the Marxists of RAM are so coy about their politics.

And then there’s the sheer embarrassment of the results.   Having poured their efforts into Mangere, the Family Party gained only 856 votes.  RAM claims 3,000 members but the overwhelming majority didn’t vote for them, they only received 405 votes.   

 

iPredict

Having made a few predictions, I’ve backed myself on iPredict. 

In Wellington Central I’m backing Robertson (bought 25 at 80c) but think Franks is underpriced (bought 14 at 15c but have a sell order for 18.7c).

For the overall election outcome I’ve shorted both a National majority (50 at 23.41c) and National getting more than 48% (14 shares but an order to cover that should it reach 44c). Also I’ve bought Clark remaining PM (100 at 26c but selling for 30c, which tonight’s poll supports).

I’ve also lost 15c by misreading a bet on the OCR.

Orange Guy’s commitment to democracy under question

Minnow Parties exceeding low standards

With the real campaign having kicked off, the efforts of two minnow parties stood out for me.  

RAM’s anti-GST on food petition, which leveraged their membership, is great grass roots organisation.  This issue could have been picked up by any of the populist parties but only RAM put runs on the board with it.  They should crack four figures voting results – a significant minnow achievement.

The Family Party clearly took on board the lessons of Destiny’s 2005 campaign.  Their coherent, persistent and active campaign to win South Auckland seats has far exceeded minnows’ normal low standards.

Do ‘family values’ mean being thick?

The Family Party is counting on South Auckland voters being stupid or ambivalent about economic policy.   The party has rather right-wing economic policy.  The voters it is pursuing have always voted  Labour (economically left wing). 

The Family Party must be assuming stupidity or ambivalence if they expect to win seats in South Auckland voters.  This is, of course, not even considering that these voters might not want to create another coalition partner for National in Parliament.   

I’m guessing people in Mangere, Manukau East and Manurewa aren’t that unsophisticated.

Palin For President

Wellington should keep STV

Wellingtonians should have received their voting papers for the STV vs FPP referendum. 

I’ll be voting for STV. 

Ultimately STV favours candidate/s that are more popular with the electorate overall.  FPP can let through the least popular candidate if votes amongst the more popular candidates are split.  STV also means voting for your preferred candidate still matters, even if they have no chance, as your vote will still likely influence the outcome. 

The best argument against STV is that it’s too complicated.  It is true that at the last WCC elections anyone who couldn’t count to 10 was stuffed.

Guess the candidate

I received one of my first pieces of junk mail for the upcoming election.  What struck me was, as you can see, how motherhood and apple pie the slogans on it were.

 

These could be slogans for the majority of the candidates standing.  The worst thing about this stuff is that the candidate using it is smart enough to have come up with something much better. 

Which candidate? Click here (although you if you’re able to be fooled by the wonders of Microsoft Paint you may be a little confused )

Democrats for Social Credit List

The Democrats have released their party list. It’s surprisingly similar to the 2005 list, with twenty candidates out of thirty one standing again.

This shows they have a stable core membership but they’re not attracting new blood.  While a stable core helps long-term survival, without growing membership they can’t hope for any future success or influence.

What should really concern them is that during a global financial crisis their brand of fundamental financial reform isn’t attracting attention.  They’ve the most fertile ground for their ideas since they left the Alliance.  If they can’t become popular today they never will.

The Hapu Party

It’s somewhat unsurprising the serial controversy courter David Rankin intends to contest the coming election.  Standing against Hone Harawira is is comparatively unambitious given some of Mr Rankin’s previous activities.  Wanting to withdraw his hapu from Treaty obligations, seeking British pensions for Maori and claiming the Treaty grounds make seeking office relatively tame.  

While unlikely to make much of an impact on the election, the Hapu Party should add a bit of colour to the contest for the Te Tai Tokerau seat at least.